Last 11 Derby Winners Won Previous Start<br> Champion Fierceness Looking to Buck Recent Trend

HALLANDALE BEACH, FL – The $1 million Curlin Florida Derby (G1) presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farm at Xalapa has become widely recognized as the most successful stop on the Road to the Triple Crown, having produced 59 winners in the historic Spring Classic series from 46 starters in Gulfstream Park’s tradition-rich stakes for 3-year-olds.

Since the inaugural running of the Florida Derby in 1952, starters in the 1 1/8-mile stakes have gone on to win 25 runnings of the Kentucky Derby (G1) – a 33 percent success rate from 72 editions of prep. Mage captured last year’s Run for the Roses following a runner-up finish in the Florida Derby.

While the Florida Derby is one of the surest routes to Triple Crown glory, there has been no firm formula for success in Gulfstream Park’s prestigious prep the past 25 years. Yet, a recent trend has developed among its winners – entering the Florida Derby in winning form. Last year, Forte became the 11th consecutive Florida Derby winner coming off a victory, whether it came in the Fountain of Youth (G2), Holy Bull (G3), a handicap, an allowance or an out-of-state stakes.

Horses entered in Saturday’s Derby coming off a victory are Hades, Bail Us Out, Seminole Chief, Conquest Warrior, and Iris’s Dream.

During the past 25 years, Fountain of Youth starters have gone on to win the Florida Derby nine times. The second-most successful formula for Florida Derby success has been to prep against non-stakes company. Eight Florida Derby winners were allowance or starter allowance participants. The Holy Bull had the third-highest Florida Derby success rate among its starters with five winners in Gulfstream’s premier Triple Crown prep – four of whom won the 1 1/16-mile stakes.

All but two of the last 25 Florida Derby winners raced at Gulfstream Park in their final prep. Nyquist (2016), who won the San Vicente (G2) at Santa Anita before winning the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby, and Empire Maker (2003), who finished second in the Sham Stakes and went on to finish second in the Kentucky Derby and win the Belmont Stakes (G1), both prepped at Santa Anita.

Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher has saddled a record seven winners in the Florida Derby. All seven had won their Florida Derby prep races. Scat Daddy (2007), Quality Road (2009) and Forte (2023) won the Fountain of Youth. Audible (2018) captured the Holy Bull. Constitution (2024), Always Dreaming (2017), and Known Agenda (2021) all came off allowance scores. Materiality (2015) parlayed an Islamorada Handicap victory into Florida Derby glory. Always Dreaming went on to capture the Kentucky Derby.

Pletcher-trained Fierceness, who was voted 3-year-old Eclipse Award champion after capturing the Nov. 3 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Santa Anita, is expected to be heavily favored to win Saturday’s Florida Derby.

The son of 2019 Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) winner City of Light finished a disappointing third in the Feb. 3 Holy Bull following a troubled start and a wide trip. He would become the first Pletcher trainee to capture the Florida Derby following a loss in his final prep, as well as the first Florida Derby winner coming off a defeat since Take Charge Indy, who had finished second in an allowance before scoring in 2012.